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Fri 02.29.2008

Gold ends up, posts a weekly gain of more than $27
Gold futures finished with gains Friday, having hit a record high of $978.50 an ounce overnight, as the metal continues to draw support from weakness in the U.S. dollar and rising investment flows into commodities. Gold for April delivery ended up $7.50 at $975 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier surging to a record of $978.50. Gold posted a weekly gain of $27.20 from last Friday's closing level of $947.80. The metal surged 5% in February and is up over 15% year-to-date. With the U.S. dollar tumbling and inflation surging, gold continues to break record highs and many analysts believe that it might surpass the psychologically key $1,000 level before the end of March.

Gold futures poised to soon top $1,000 an ounce
Analysts say it may be a matter of days before prices hit key psychological level With the U.S. dollar tumbling and inflation surging, gold continues to break record highs and might surpass the psychologically key $1,000 level before the end of March. Gold futures for April delivery ended with strong gains Thursday, surging to a record high of $975 an ounce in after-hours trading, only $25 away from the $1,000 mark. The contract finished regular trading at $967.50 an ounce. See Metals Stocks. Gold prices have surged some 16% in the past two months and 22% in the past three months.

Impact from credit crunch will be huge, study says
The economic impact of the mortgage crisis and credit crunch will be huge, and it has barely begun, a new study prepared by several prominent economists and released Friday has concluded. "Feedback from the financial market turmoil to the real economy could be substantial," it said. Unless they can quickly recapitalize, banks are likely to cut back their lending to consumers and businesses by more than $1 trillion, cutting economic growth by more than a percentage point over the next 12 months. The report was released at a forum on U.S. monetary policy in New York in which several senior Federal Reserve officials and economists were participating.

Spending Eroded by Inflation, Chicago Index Drops
Inflation eroded gains in U.S. consumer spending and a gauge of business sentiment fell to the lowest level in more than six years, pushing the economy toward a recession. While purchases rose 0.4 percent in January, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation climbed 0.3 percent, the most in four months, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The National Association of Purchasing Management- Chicago said its index of business activity tumbled to 44.5 in February. Readings below 50 signal a contraction.

Consumer Spending Stalls
Consumer Spending Stalls As Confidence Plunges Due to Rising Inflation and Falling Home Prices
Consumer spending is threatening to stall out while consumer confidence, battered by soaring energy costs and falling home prices, has taken a steep nose dive. Analysts said the two new reports Friday were just the latest danger signals that the country was edging perilously close to a recession. The Commerce Department reported that spending posted a 0.4 percent rise in January, better than economists had been expecting. However, all of that gain came from a surge in inflation during the month.

Paulson: No Taxpayer Bailout for Wall Street
As politicians begin to react to the rising threat of mass foreclosures across the country, the White House is digging in. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who has been working to convince the banks themselves to dig out mortgage borrowers, told The Wall Street Journal, in effect, that Congress should back off and let the markets work. He called the various Congressional plans being discussed as nothing more than bailouts for misbehaving speculators and reckless lenders.

More Americans using credit cards to stay afloat
Seven years in the credit-counseling business didn't prepare Ann Estes for the alarming trend she began noticing last fall: As her clients' mortgage bills became unaffordable, a growing number of them began paying their credit card bills before — and sometimes instead of — their mortgages. "We've never seen anything like this," says Estes, who counsels clients by phone from her office in Richmond, Va. "Their homes are at risk, and they know it. But people say, 'I don't want to let my credit cards go because that's my cash flow.' "

Deutsche Bkank sees oil at $150/barrel in 2010 amid concerns over supply growth
NEW YORK, Feb 28, 2008 --Deutsche Bank said it sees a peak nominal oil price of $150 a barrel in 2010, as raising supply is expected to become increasingly difficult as demand growth continues. Analyst Paul Sankey said oil demand can easily exceed 100 million barrels a day by 2015, but said increasing supply to 100 mb/d will be very difficult. Assuming current production decline rates of 5%, Sankey said sustaining a 100 mb/d oil market would require new annual supply growth of 8 mb/d, "a level that has never been reached." Sankey also said he didn't think $100 a barrel oil is not the price level that will break demand -- "we can go higher."


Gold and Silver Shine Brighter
Gold has reached new levels of glitz as the dollar continues to fade.
The precious metal is rapidly approaching $1000 per ounce and is likely to hit that new level sometime this year. Gold hit a record price when it rose $7.60 to $975.10 after having traded as high as $978.50 in New York. It has risen 16% in 2008 on the top of a 32% increase in 2007. Gold is not the only metal that has been shining more brightly of late. Silver hit its highest point in more than 25 years when it hit $19.92 an ounce before falling to $19.74 and palladium was up to a new six-year high of $582 an ounce before falling to $560.00. Platinum rose to a high of $2,161. The price of precious metals is being driven up by a weakening dollar; the U.S. currency fell .6% on Friday to $73.82 on the dollar index which measures the buck against six other currencies, as well as rising costs of gold production due to aging mines and depletion of product.

Stocks Dive on New Signs of Economic Chill
In a painful year for Wall Street, even the shortest month couldn’t end soon enough. Stock markets sank on Friday — Leap Day — after a new round of credit woes and a painful dose of weak economic reports reignited fears that a recession may be imminent. The Dow Jones industrials plunged 315 points, and every major index shed more than 2.5 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is off to its worst start to a year since 1941. "The drumbeat of economic news has been unrelentingly bad," said Edward Yardeni, an investment strategist. "The recession scenario is looking more and more credible."

Facing Default, Some Walk Out on New Homes
When Raymond Zulueta went into default on his mortgage last year, he did what a lot of people do. He worried. In a declining housing market, he owed more than the house was worth, and his mortgage payments, even on an interest-only loan, had shot up to $2,600, more than he could afford. “I was terrified,” said Mr. Zulueta, who services automated teller machines for an armored car company in the San Francisco area. Then in January he learned about a new company in San Diego called You Walk Away that does just what its name says. For $995, it helps people walk away from their homes, ceding them to the banks in foreclosure.

Buffett’s State of the World: There’s Folly in Wonderland
The billionaire investor Warren E. Buffett disclosed Friday that he had earned profits for shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway by speculating in the Brazilian currency, the real, and by buying a large stake in a French pharmaceutical company, Sanofi-Aventis. He also complained that many other companies were overstating earnings, and he expressed puzzlement that their auditors let them get away with it. Mr. Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders, which was released Friday, has become something of a business institution, with the certainty that he will offer caustic comments and the hope that he will shed light on his investments.
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